Issued: 12am on Thursday, January 1st 1970
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short Term (Sunday 9/8 through Wednesday 9/11)
Relatively zonal flow aloft in conjunction to higher pressure (about 1021mb) has maintained the dry conditions throughout the day and into the evening hours of Sunday. Subtle 700mb moisture advection has been the driving influence for the fairly cloudy conditions within the mid-levels. Any isolated rain development will be well-hindered as high pressure stays intact, favorably dry profiles near the surface/lower levels and a moderately weak jet remaining just NE’ly of southeastern Ohio. A positively tilted and unamplified upper trough will progress through the region overnight and throughout the day on Monday as immense ridging develops over the Great Plains. A low-lying cloud deck and patchy fog will persist through Monday morning in before prominent mixing and improved daytime heating nudges the high into the mid-80s. In the wake of this uninfluenced disturbance, this previously mentioned and pronounced upper riding shifts eastward over the Midwest and Great Lakes region. Flow begins to veer southerly in addition to height rises and an increase to low-level moisture for Tuesday and midweek. Current mesoscale runs are projecting very high CAPE values, upwards of 3250 J/kg-3750 J/kg, but minimal shearing and forcing for Wednesday afternoon. Mostly dry, but unseasonably warmer conditions will persist through Tuesday in before this convectively driven precipitation is introduced for Wednesday. This unsettled weather pattern will pursue through late week as these unseasonable highs continually climb near 90.
Long Term (Thursday 9/12 through Saturday 9/14)
Upper-level ridging will persist through Thursday as a strengthening surface low emerges out of Nebraska with further propagation NNE’ly. The low’s eastward extending warm front will stall out along northern Ohio throughout Thursday and parts of Friday, aiding in any diurnal thunderstorm development. As this strong surface low propagates further north of the Great Lakes, a NW’ly cold front will approach on southeastern Ohio Friday before slowly passing through overnight. This frontal passage will introduce a brief high pressure, fairly westerly flow aloft and a slight decrease in temperatures for the start to the weekend.