Issued: 8pm on Thursday, November 9th 2023
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-Term (Thursday PM 11/9/2023 through Sunday 11/12/2023):
Tonight through the start of the weekend, zonal flow aloft provides support for surface high pressure to build in after the passage of a cold front last night. CAA ahead of a weak cold front will bring a cool down to the region Friday night heading into Saturday bringing daytime highs down into the low 50s. Going into Sunday, a weak shortwave trough is expected to move through the region aided by a surge of PVA at the trough base, but surface high pressure will continue to dominate with a lower/mid-level ridging pattern.
Long-Term (Monday 11/13/2023 through Wednesday 11/15/2023):
To start out the work week, upper-level ridging will provide support from the right exit region of the 500 mb jet streak for NVA and subsidence in the region aiding strong surface high pressure. Also on Monday, some warm air is expected to push into southeast Ohio bringing those daytime highs up into the 60s. This ridging pattern and strong high pressure is anticipated to continue through at least Thursday causing some concern for elevated fire danger, but surface winds are expected to be light at this time. Overall, expect nice sunny weather with dry conditions throughout the rest of the forecast period.
Thursday PM – Saturday AM: Clouds clearing on Friday PM, cooling temperatures heading into Saturday AM.
Saturday PM – Sunday: High pressure starting to set up, weather becoming clearer and slightly warmer.
Monday – Wednesday: Sunny and dry weather, warming trend, possibly enhanced fire danger towards Tuesday/Wednesday.