Issued: 12am on Thursday, January 1st 1970
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short Term (Wednesday 10/2 through Saturday 10/5)
High pressure ~1018mb remains situated over the southeastern U.S as strong zonal flow extends westerly across the upper Great Plains and Great Lakes. Southeast Ohio will continue to persist within the warm sector of an approaching low as its stationary boundary maintains its W-E positioning along northern Ohio. In addition to the lifted boundary, very depleted 700mb – 350mb moisture profiles over the region will promote dry conditions and limited cloud cover overnight through Thursday morning. By 12z Thursday, a strong jet streak (upwards of 130 knots) will be positioned WSW’ly across central Wisconsin and house favorable convergence within the right entrance region over northwestern Indiana. This emerged weak surface low will quickly organize and propagate further east along Lake Erie and drag its SW’ly cold front across SE Ohio by late evening Thursday. Ahead and along this frontal boundary, precipitation chances will be somewhat hindered for southern Ohio as soundings depict fairly dry lower-mid levels. Another hot afternoon (near 91) with dewpoints within the lower 60s will generate weak instability, offering a slight chance for a rain shower or even a weak thunderstorm along the front. Greater precipitation chances will be confined to northeast Ohio as energy and moisture parameters are better projected. With fairly tight pressure and temperature gradients, this strong cold front will quickly make its passage further SE by 00z-02z Friday. Some strong winds gusting up to 25mph-30mph can be possible at times. Also, a 20⁰F-25⁰F temperature change can be expected by Friday as this strong cold front passes through late Thursday evening, offering well-pronounced NW’ly CAA. Brief upper-level ridging with stronger high pressure ~1025mb quickly fills in over the Great Lakes by 12z Friday lasting throughout Saturday. Temperatures will once again hit the record high for Thursday in before a change in airmass quickly reduces temperatures to near average late short term… Strong WAA returns late Saturday in the wake of another upper-level disturbance out of the upper Midwest.
Long Term (Sunday 10/6 through Tuesday 10/8)
Surface winds begin to veer S’ly late short term as the previously mentioned upper-level ridging breaks down Saturday night. Southwesterly flow will shift temperatures slightly above average, nearing the upper 70s for the beginning of the long term. An upper-level shortwave feature slightly digs through the Midwest by 12z Sunday and introduces another cold front on the region Sunday evening. Dewpoint values will increase back into the mid-60s in addition to PWAT values climbing to 1.7in just ahead of this projected cold front. The FROPA is set for some time early Monday morning, which will allow some cloud cover and rain showers to linger throughout the first part of Monday. Prominent NW’ly-N’ly flow will once again reduce the temperatures to near average through the remainder of this term. Dry and seasonable conditions are likely through Tuesday and into midweek as high pressure ~1024mb maintains dominance over the region.
