Issued: 12am on Thursday, January 1st 1970
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short Term (Wednesday 9/11 through Saturday 9/14)
Robust upper-level ridging remains intact over the central and greater eastern continental U.S. Simultaneously, a digging shortwave feature is located over Montana extending further southward just east of the Rockies. As of this evening, a static high pressure ~1024mb resides just south of the region over the western portions of Virginia. This in combination with a lifted stationary boundary along the lower Great Lakes and drier mid-levels will greatly diminish any chance of development through Wednesday night. Proper radiational cooling overnight will favor fog development with calm winds and a strong inversion near the surface. Pre-dawn to early Thursday morning fog will eventually mix out with strong daytime heating. The high temperature will once again pursue near 90, especially for the lowlands. The previously mentioned stationary front located to the north will dip slightly into central Ohio by early afternoon on Thursday and veer our winds northwesterly. Within this unstable environment, local forcing from this converging boundary may promote some daytime initiation along eastern and southeastern Ohio. Intensity and spatial coverage of any development will be very low as CAPE values remain weak-moderate with almost complete absence any upper forcing. 09z Friday, the amplified ridging progresses further east over the Great Lakes region as the previously mentioned shortwave trough follows in a NE’ly fashion. This projected surface low of ~1002mb over northern Minnesota will progress through its occlusion phase and progressively drag an advancing cold front from the west. This frontal boundary will advance on SE Ohio from the WNW Friday night with eventual passage into the late morning hours of Saturday. Shower and thunderstorm development will be likely ahead and along the boundary, but with its projected timing and absence of strong flow aloft, effects and intensity will be greatly reduced. Some weak gusty winds and local downpours will be the primary concern with potential PW values reaching near 1.80in. A low-lying cloud deck will persist through Saturday morning in before prominent CAA from the northwest ushers in drier and slightly cooler conditions throughout the afternoon and evening hours.
Long Term (Sunday 9/15 through Tuesday 9/17)
Throughout the early weekend high pressure quickly fills in across the region in addition to the reduction of low-level moisture. Weak high pressure and decreased cloud cover will dominate Sunday and into early next week as another well-amplified ridge develops across the western United States. Southwesterly flow will return for Monday and advect yet again, hotter temperatures and low-level moisture for southeastern Ohio. Unstable conditions may drive some diurnal rain showers into Monday afternoon, but drier weather is projected to prevail with the unimpressive moisture profiles. 700mb moisture reduces once again as northerly flow proceeds into Tuesday and midweek. The warmer temperature trend will continue late term as this distinguished ridge pushes eastward across the Midwest.
