Issued: 12am on Thursday, January 1st 1970
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short Term (Wednesday 9/4 through Saturday 9/7)
Strong and apparent upper ridging has been influencing much of the southwestern U.S and lower Great Plains, which has been aiding in a lifted Jet along southern Canada. Longwave troughing remains intact as southern Ohio is situated downstream of this relatively zonal flow aloft. Today, a weak and well-hindered cold front made its passage southeasterly earlier this afternoon, which allowed the lower-mid levels (800mb-500mb) to exceptionally dry out throughout the day. The previous upper disturbance has propagated further northeast of the Great Lakes and will continue to do so throughout this term. Moisture profiles will continue to remain relatively dry as this robust northerly flow continues to dominate the region for this term. Strong radiational cooling can be expected overnight Wednesday and into the predawn hours of Thursday with drier air aloft, clear skies and weak northerly CAA. Some typical fog development is likely within the favorable low-lying river valleys, but with weak to moderate winds (6-10mph) overnight this may induce a reducing and dispersing factor. Despite prominent daytime heating into Thursday, this drier and northerly flow will be in control as temperatures will likely near 80. This downstream flow pattern will open up to higher pressure (~1020mb) for the Great Lakes region Thursday and Friday before a nearing cold front late Saturday. An upper shortwave will emerge just northeast of the Great Lakes Saturday and a well-defined surface low will drape a weak cold front through the area late afternoon. Current moisture profiles remain dry and non-favorable, which may just lead to some cloud cover with its approach and passage… The aforementioned frontal passage has progressed further southeast of Appalachia and will begin to interact with Hurricane Dorian (located off the eastern coast of South Carolina) early on Thursday. Dorian is projected to remain hurricane strength and hug the eastern coast as potential landfall over the Outer Banks may occur early Friday. In conjunction, this subtle troughing and strong northerly flow over the Great Lakes region, anticyclonic flow east of Dorian and influencing cold front will guide its path northeasterly along the Atlantic coast. By late Saturday, Dorian will eventually pull east of Rhode Island and get pulled in the westerly flow aloft.
Long Term (Sunday 9/8 through Tuesday 9/10)
Late weekend, weak and zonal flow aloft will be in control in conjunction to higher pressure that will be located over the northern Great Lakes. Some weak-moderate (40-45 knots) flow within the 500mb-700mb levels will extend W-E along southern Ohio into Sunday afternoon and evening. In addition to this weak forcing, WAA and some poor moisture advection from the west may influence some increased cloud cover and even some isolated rain showers Sunday evening and Monday morning. 500mb heights and dewpoints (into the mid-upper 60s) will be on the rise in addition to our surface winds veering southerly with an approaching warm front Tuesday night.
