Issued: 9pm on Friday, March 29th 2024
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-Term (Friday PM 3/29/2024 – Sunday 3/31/2024):
An active pattern is setting up over the Ohio Valley this weekend through late next week. A mid-level shortwave trough is going to be the catalyst for precipitation starting Saturday as clouds roll in tonight. This shortwave will bring a stationary front that will transition into a wave-stage mid-latitude cyclone as it forms a cold front and warm front by Saturday evening. As the surface low starts to progress, a warm front lifting through the region on Sunday morning will bring a chance for severe weather for the southernmost half of Ohio. The Storm Prediction Center currently has us under Marginal Risk for severe weather. The main hazards with storms right now appear to be damaging wind gusts and possibly small hail with somewhat low instability as high as 600 J/kg. The main area of concern seems to be farther west where instability is higher, but expect the system to shift as short-range models start to initialize.
Long-Term (Monday 4/1/2024 – Thursday 3/4/2024):
Enhanced upper-level flow combined with a belt of moisture being fed into the region will continue to provide for rain chances and cloud cover through the early part of the week as a surface low in the Northern Plains interacts with a strong surface high in the Gulf of Mexico. Tuesday brings another chance for severe weather as a strong and mature surface low-pressure system moves in. A strong upper-level jet almost directly in phase with the low-level jet will enhance this storm’s potential but is also an indication along with the occlusion that this low will be in the end stages of its life cycle. Another warm front will push into the region on Tuesday morning. This front will be the main forcing mechanism for showers and thunderstorms. Instability on long-range models is currently expected to be higher, providing more energy for thunderstorms with CAPE between 1,100-1,500 J/kg. Models are still too far out to determine any other storm threats at this moment, so be sure to stay tuned to up-to-date forecasts. Breezy to gusty conditions will also be present with this tightening pressure gradient as this low is at the end of its life cycle.
Wednesday and Thursday the region will still be under the influence of this occluded low-pressure system which will likely stall and slow down as it progresses eastward and fills in. Rain and clouds will stick around through the long-term forecast along with breezy to gusty conditions, but we are optimistic that as high pressure begins to build in clouds will begin to push out and bring us some drier weather!
