Issued: 9pm on Sunday, February 19th 2023
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short Term (Sunday 2/19/2023 through Thursday 2/23/2023)
Dominant high pressure keeps conditions dry through Sunday evening and even for the beginning of Monday. However, a shortwave trough brings the chance for precipitation on Monday evening and through Tuesday morning, but this system isn’t expected to bring more than 0.1 inches of rain as pockets of rain will be spotty. The main parameter of concern would be wind speeds, as surface winds could reach up to 30 knots early on Tuesday due to a tightened pressure gradient.
We remain with a warming trend for the early part of the week as ridging reestablishes after the early-week disturbance. Wind speeds should remain westerly until another system disrupts the area on Wednesday into Thursday, where a deep low pressure center from our West passes North of us. Warm, moist warm from the Gulf will be projected in our direction with a warm front, meaning that daytime temperatures are going to skyrocket into the 70s before the cold front hits late on Thursday and brings our overnight temperatures from the upper 40s back to the 30s. While this center is expected to be rising once it passes over our area, we still need to be prepared for wet conditions and localized flooding with precipitation being predominantly rain. Totals right now are looking to be just under 1 inch, but once we approach closer to the system’s expected arrival, we can refine rain total estimates with better model predictions. Once precipitation with that cold front escape to the East, winds remain quite gusty, reaching up to 40 knots in some areas.
Long Term (Thursday 2/23/2023 through Sunday 2/26/2023)
Conditions have a brief chance to clear through Thursday night and into Friday morning with a ridging pattern, but we do start seeing the effects of yet another low pressure center from our Southwest early on Sunday morning. This will bring more rain to the region over the weekend. Temperatures look to remain above average for the weekend, so right now we are expecting rain with this passage. Winds look to be westerly with this low pressure being to the west.