Issued: 9pm on Sunday, March 19th 2023
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short Term (Sunday 3-19-23 through Wednesday 3-22-23)
Current upper level analysis shows a shortwave trough shifting eastward tonight into Monday, making way for a ridging pattern to become the dominant pattern for the beginning of the work week. This will finally allow winds to settle down as a pressure gradient relaxes. Cooler air will still be in place Sunday night, however, under clear skies, which will drop lows into the 20s to teens in some locations due to radiational cooling. Temperatures will begin to warm gradually throughout the week, with highs expected to be in the mid 70s by Thursday. This warmth will not come with dry weather though, as ridging shifts off to the east and allows a weak disturbance to pass overhead, bringing chances for showers beginning Tuesday night into Wednesday. These showers will be relatively light compared to a much stronger system that will impact the area beginning Thursday.
Long Term (Thursday 3-23-23 through Sunday 3-26-23)
The aforementioned warming trend will be in response to a low pressure system sending a warm front north on Thursday, igniting widespread showers across the region. A cold front will then not be far behind and is expected to stall out on Friday. This stalled front will continue to bring rounds of showers to close out the work week before eventually sliding off to the east Friday night through Saturday morning, diminishing chances for showers by Saturday afternoon at the latest. After the cold frontal passage, temperatures will rebound to near normal for this time of year, with highs near 60. A ridge of high pressure then looks likely to become the dominant feature once again Saturday afternoon, clearing conditions out to close the weekend.
