Issued: 8pm on Thursday, August 10th 2023
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-term (Thursday Night 8/10/2023 through Sunday 8/13/2023):
Tonight and tomorrow, calm weather is expected. A very zonal pattern aloft is keeping things clear. To start off the weekend, a disturbance aloft with an enhanced jet will bring a low pressure system through, warranting the issuance of a Slight Risk (2/5) of severe weather from the Storm Prediction Center. A strong area of warm air advection into Ohio ahead of a frontal passage will accompany PVA aloft in the right exit region of the jet streak. This low-pressure system is expected to bring all hazards with CAPE values forecast to be around 3,500-4,000 J/kg. This will mean strong damaging wind gusts and hail will be threats with this system. Additionally, a conditional tornado threat will also be present due to model sounding showing somewhat curved hodographs in lower levels, with SRH values from 0-3km up to 350 m^2/s^2. Due to these forecast conditions and some other uncertainties in the forecast, an upgrade from the Storm Prediction Center could be possible in the next couple of days.
After this disturbance, a shortwave ridge will dominate Sunday, bringing drier and more pleasant conditions to the region before the next trough that is anticipated.
Long-term (Monday 7/14/2023 through Thursday 8/17/2023):
Monday, a strong shortwave trough with a negative tilt is anticipated to sweep through the region bringing low pressure at the surface. This low-pressure system is expected to be cut off as the system matures and gains more of a neutral tilt Monday night into early Tuesday morning. This has warranted a 15% chance of severe weather for Monday by the SPC.
Through the rest of the long term, calm weather is expected with mostly sunny and dry conditions due to much more calm upper-levels and zonal flow at 500 mb. Tuesday however, some breezy to windy conditions could be possible on the back side of the system as the closed off low is anticipated to deepen and move out of our region.
Synopsis:
Friday-Sunday Morning: Clear and dry conditions on Friday, then severe weather expected with all hazards possible on Saturday, clear weather returning on Sunday morning.
Sunday-Wednesday: Clear weather, then Monday more severe weather expected with a shortwave trough, then breezy to windy, clear, and dry conditions on Tuesday, calm Wednesday.
Thursday: Clear and dry conditions expected.
