Issued: 4pm on Tuesday, November 7th 2023
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-Term (Tuesday PM 11/7/2023 through Thursday PM 11/9/2023):
Upper-level ridging has been dominant over the last few days keeping things clear and dry for our region. This is associated and aided by NVA in the upper levels, but looking ahead to Thursday, a rather zonal upper-level jet with a slight trough will move over our region. This upper-level disturbance is associated with a surface low that will mature quickly and move through the northern portion of Ohio. PVA aloft will help this surface low and bring strong warm air advection (WAA) into the region with a nocturnal low-level jet that develops Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Some precipitation and increased cloud cover will likely accompany the passage of the warm front and even ahead of the front. As this mid-latitude cyclone is expected to go into a mature stage, the cold front is anticipated soon after the warm front and will pass through sometime on Thursday morning, bringing cooler temperatures and the chance for showers in the area.
Fire weather concerns exist also with the ongoing ridge aloft and a dry cold front that passed through the area today. Low relative humidity values until sunset this evening will accompany some breezy winds today causing enhanced fire danger in the region following the stretch of warmer and drier weather the area has seen recently as fine dead fuels continue to dry. RH values are expected to be higher tomorrow through Thursday and as precipitation starts, fire weather concerns will decrease rapidly.
Tuesday PM: Warm, dry, and clear weather :)!
Wednesday-Thursday PM: Warm weather Wednesday, precipitation possible Wednesday evening into Thursday, then cooler weather after a cold front on Thursday.