Issued: 5pm on Sunday, August 16th 2020
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short Term (Sunday 8-16-2020 through Tuesday 8-18-2020)
A VORT max located off to our west will advect lower heights into our area over the next 5-6 hours. Positive differential thickness advection will slightly tilt this trough more neutrally to negatively as this propagates eastward. A tight height gradient will cause the formation of a jet streak off to the west. This will cause cyclogenesis of a weak surface cyclone. Along the southern edge of the cyclone, frontogenesis of a cold front will occur along an axis of confluence. This will initiate convection this afternoon across the entire state, moving from west to east. While the kinematic environment will be favorable for long lasting convection, thermodynamic environment will be fairly weak for any severe convection. A few gusty winds will be possible in some of the stronger updrafts. After FROPA, cooler temperatures and humidity will reprieve, with Highs reaching the lower 80s and upper 70s, and dew points falling into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Cold air advection aloft will cancel out upward motion from positive vorticity advection. This will cause sinking motion, creating pleasant weather for the beginning of the week. Highs will be in the upper 70s and lower 80s, with mainly sunny skies
Long Term (Wednesday 8-19-2020 through Saturday 8-22-2020)
Increasing differential thickness advection will dig this trough further south for the majority of the week. This will keep temperatures relatively mild for the general forecast area. WAA at 500 mb will create weakly negative omega Thursday into Friday, keeping rain chances alive Thursday into Friday. Other than that, temperatures will be relatively mild with mainly calm weather.