Issued: 12am on Thursday, January 1st 1970
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short term (Sunday 7/22 through Tuesday 7/24)
The low pressure system will continue to track to the south of Athens tonight as it continues to weaken. The vicinity of the center of the system from the area will mean moisture will be more than plentiful. Positive vorticity will also be present with moisture, but CAPE values are barely adequate around 1500 J/kg. Expect near to total cloud cover overnight as well showers. Storms are not likely as CAPE remains low and heating isn’t strong enough for appropriate uplift. The lack of forcing and shearing will also mean that showers will not be too heavy. Cloud cover will be roughly the same on Monday as the low continues to slowly drag southward. Upper level patterns show the shortwave trough weakening and being pushed by a developing upper level trough. Moisture looks more disorganized on model runs for Monday with Athens in an area less moisture than the previous couple of days. CAPE values will be near identical to Sundays. With highs looking to to reach the mid 80s on Monday, heating and humidity could possibly produce scattered storms in the mid to late afternoon. The low looks to regress back into South Ohio Monday evening. This regression will bring back moisture into the region. Instability will slowly decay as cooling will eliminate forcing from heat, so storms chances will be roughly the same as mid-day for Monday night. The low continues to propagate northward, most likely due to the upper level trough taking over influence as it moves into the Midwest on Tuesday. The low will settle in west Ohio as a cold front will push through towards it from the west. There will be a localized area of stronger CAPE to the south of Athens with values reaching 2000 J/kg. Moisture will still be available and increase into the evening, so storm activity is likely and looks to increase into Tuesday evening. The increase in cape and relatively high moisture values could mean heavy downpours could be possible from late afternoon into the evening.
Long term (Wednesday 7/25 through Saturday 7/28)
Shortwave patterns look to stabilize as the upper level trough looks to fully takeover by late Wednesday. This trough will push a a cold front that will pass over the region sometime past 12z Wednesday. The frontal boundary will push a band of moisture ahead of it as dry air follows behind it. Another localized area of CAPE will be in the area this time reaching values around 2500 J/kg. Storms are likely with the possibility of a few heavier rain showers. With the timing of precipitation of the movement of the front, downpours should not last long if they are to occur. Precipitation will be most likely from mid-day to mid-evening. On Thursday, high pressure and dry air will follow the cold front and will finally clear cloud cover for the region as fair weather returns. Despite the influence of an upper level trough, dry CAA will keep the area in the low to mid 80s as the high comes closer to Ohio on Friday. On Saturday, the upper level trough broadens as southeastern flow brings in a batch of moisture. Despite moist, warm air brought in from the Southeast, the trough will keep most of the warm air from moving to northward as highs only reach the low 80s. The added humidity will leave room for showers and storms to occur, but instability is limited on Saturday, so chances are small.
The next technical discussion will be on Wednesday 7/25
