Issued: 8pm on Sunday, August 10th 2025
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-Term Forecast (Sunday 08/10/2025 through Tuesday 08/12/2025)
Over the short-term forecast, the ridge that has been over Ohio over an extended period of time will slowly push out of the region. By mid-Monday, a trough will slowly fill in its place in conjunction with a deepening low-pressure system at the surface within Canada. Through tonight and Monday, some minor instability could be present with low amounts of cold air advecting from the southwest. 500 mb heights are likely to fall and tighten early Monday but especially into Tuesday as the surface Canadian mid-latitude cyclone moves eastward. Instability is likely to be at its peak in the short-term Tuesday afternoon and evening with moisture moving into a dry air mass at 200 and 300 mb around 21z. At 700, 850, and 925 mb, while more moisture will be present compared to aloft, more abundance of moisture will likely flow from the south around the same timeframe. However, at 500 mb a significantly drier layer of air could be present Tuesday evening, leading to slightly more instability compared to Sunday evening and Monday. A slightly favorable vertical velocity conditions could be likely Tuesday evening as well, though primarily at 700 and 500 mb. Weak relative vorticity values could be present near the surface, but not so much at the mid-levels, so any showers that could develop are not likely to be long lived at this moment in time.
Long-Term Forecast (Wednesday 08/13/2025 through Saturday 08/16/2025)
Showers and thunderstorm chances may be possible for the start of the long-term. The trough expected aloft will primarily be out of the region by Wednesday evening, as will the mid-latitude cyclone at the surface, but a substantial surface cold front will hover over the southern portion of the state for the remainder of the long-term. Although high-pressure will be split by this front majority of the week, indications of stronger vertical motions Wednesday evening could provide a strong lifting mechanism to spark any showers and storms that evening. This lifting mechanism likely would be the approaching cold front. However, near-surface relative vorticity values are not very strong, and at 700 mb, may even counteract some vertical motion all-together. Although, at 500 mb by Wednesday evening, strong vorticity could move with these storms. Thanks to the moisture from Tuesday, any showers to develop Wednesday will have plenty of fuel to use as they move through southern Ohio. By Thursday, much of the moisture content will dry out as the surface cold front stagnates over southern Ohio as a partial stationary front for the remainder of the long-term. Dry, westerly winds aloft will permeate much of Ohio, so any clouds that develop are likely going to be mid-to-near surface level as more stable conditions follow. Warm air advection will dominate Thursday through the remainder of the long-term forecast, and as 500 mb heights expand, we can expect stable conditions to return for the week leading up to our Bobcat family’s return hOUme!
