Issued: 10pm on Sunday, November 26th 2023
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-Term Forecast (Sunday 11/26/2023 through Tuesday 11/28/2023):
Sunday night a strong low will continue to impact SE Ohio. The cold front has already passed by this point, but lingering showers behind the front will continue overnight. Precipitation will remain as rain, as conditions are not quite cold enough aloft for snow, although much CAA is occurring. Further accumulation will be very minimal, possibly 0.01 – 0.03 in. Winds will be gusty with 10-15 mph winds and gusts up to 25 mph possible. Showers will subside by late morning Monday, though overcast skies and strong winds will remain into the afternoon as SE Ohio sits in the base of the strong upper-level trough. Lower level CAA will persist Monday and as a result, significantly drop overnight temperatures into the upper teens. Winds will continue to be strong overnight and will cause the wind chill to drop even further into the low-to-mid teens.
Strong upper-level ridging will begin to take place Tuesday, as the trough heads east out of the region. As a result, high pressure will build in, allowing for skies to clear. Making for a fair day. Clear skies will remain overnight, aiding in cold lows.
Long-Term Forecast (Wednesday 11/29/2023 through Saturday 12/2/2023):
High pressure will persist Wednesday with strong ridging. Strong low-level WAA will take place allowing afternoon temperatures to warm into the upper-40s Wednesday. Further warming will continue into Thursday and sunny conditions will continue. By Friday, a strong, upper-level shortwave will bring rain showers to SE Ohio. Although early, long-term models suggest up to 0.3 in of rain from this system. Zonal flow will dominate into Saturday with a strong upper-level jet, but dry conditions are anticipated.
Synopsis:
Sunday night – Monday: Light rain showers with overcast skies and strong winds.
Tuesday – Thursday: Sunny skies with strong winds.
Friday – Saturday: More showers.
