Issued: 12am on Thursday, January 1st 1970
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short term (Wednesday 5/8 through Saturday 5/11)
Upper level ridging is pushed out tonight ahead of an incoming trough pattern. This trough continues to push a low pressure system toward the region with SE Ohio currently in the warm sector. Cloud cover will slowly increase heading into Thursday as a cold front approaches. Precipitation is likely to occur well ahead of the cold frontal boundary as daytime heating plus extra lift front the approaching frontal boundary interact with ample moisture to create precipitation. Some thunderstorms are likely to occur with this as well. While instability is low, lift and okay shearing will allow for updrafts to be strong enough to create the conditions suitable for thunderstorms. Looking at the pressure gradients, gusty winds are possible before the front approaches. Precipitation will slowly decrease throughout Friday as dry air overtakes moisture and pushes it eastward. This will be followed by upper level zonal flow which helps push high pressure through the region. This will be followed by another upper level trough that begins to move in on the latter half of Saturday.
Long term (Sunday 5/12 through Tuesday 5/14)
Low pressure is generated near the region in response to the negatively tilted trough on Sunday. As the low pressure will barely be an organized system at this time, any convection will be disorganized likely only bringing rain and a few thunderstorms to the area in the afternoon and the evening. Storms are more likely in the evening as a secondary cold front pushes through the region. During this time more instability and lift will be present allowing for more organized updrafts to potentially form. Precipitation continues through Monday as low pressure will still be nearby to the NE, but upper level ridging will move in the bring high pressure and cloud clearing.
