Issued: 11pm on Thursday, August 31st 2023
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-term (Friday 9/1/2023 through Sunday 9/3/2023):
Somewhat weak upper-level ridging out of the southwest will continue to build further into the region through the short-term forecast. This in turn will be supportive of a rather strong high-pressure system in the lower levels, with persistent ridging in the lower-to-mid levels and lots of subsidence. This high-pressure system will heat things up to above-normal temperatures, and an overall lack of precipitation is expected, although precipitation will be about average for this time of year as outlined by the Climate Prediction Center.
Long-term (Monday 9/4/2023 through Thursday 9/7/2023):
The same ridging pattern is expected to continue through most of the long term. With the warming trend associated with strong subsidence from this high-pressure continuing, Gulf moisture wrapping around this surface high is anticipated to make its way up into our region, meaning some humidity will still be causing things to feel rather uncomfortable and sticky outside for most of the forecast period. Dry conditions are anticipated through the period as well, and despite the moisture, no rain or storms are expected. Wednesday and Thursday, a shortwave trough is projected to move through the ridge, and with it will likely come a cold front. This cold front will be quite a relief at the end of the forecast period, as it will cool things down and bring lower dew points with it. At this time, we do not expect much, if any, precipitation from this frontal passage, but time will tell as short-range models come out around midweek.
Friday-Sunday: Sunny skies and warming temperatures.
Monday-Wednesday: Sunny skies and moisture are anticipated to create sticky and uncomfortable conditions.
Thursday: Cold frontal passage, relief from heat, and no precipitation is expected right now.