Issued: 12pm on Saturday, February 10th 2024
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-Term (Saturday 2/10/2024 – Monday 2/12/2024):
The current upper-level jet with a more zonal pattern over the eastern CONUS is pushing cold air down into the Appalachian region. A cold front at the surface is going to be the trigger for scattered showers and possibly some thunderstorms this morning and activity is expected to become more isolated throughout the day until tapering off later tonight Saturday PM). A strong longwave pattern traversing the southwestern US right now is expected to amplify and close off into the upper levels, and eventually is going to make its way up into the Midwest/Appalachian regions.
Monday afternoon ahead of upper-level ridging, PVA indicates that heights will fall as this strong low-pressure system moves further east. There is going to be a strong low-level jet associated with the system aided by strong synoptic forcing. Warm air advection from the low-level jet Monday afternoon into Monday evening coupled with moisture advection from the jet will push pre-frontal rain showers into the region. As the low-pressure system progresses and CAA on the backside of the low moves into the region, precipitation will likely transition to rain/snow mix and eventually snow as the temperature falls on Monday night. However, minimal impacts for travel and other activities are anticipated with light accumulations of .5 – 1″ expected currently.
Long-Term (Tuesday 2/13/2024 – Thursday 2/15/2024):
As the low-pressure system kicks off to our northeast, slight upper-level ridging is expected to build in behind the system aloft, but a strong upper-level jet remains in place. Clouds should clear up some as a result of ridging and higher pressure building at the surface and conditions will be drier with little to no precipitation expected during this period. With precipitation over the last few days and expected again heading into the later part of the week, fire danger is anticipated to be very minimal. However, Ohio’s spring fire season is approaching in the next few weeks, so make sure to be vigilant about weather conditions if planning any outdoor burning.
Synopsis:
Saturday – Sunday: Building clouds, some showers, and possibly a rumble of thunder or two. Drier on Sunday.
Monday – Tuesday AM: Rain starts changing to rain/snow and eventually snow. Snow stopping on Tuesday morning.
Tuesday PM – Thursday: Clouds beginning to clear out, drier weather, then some rain possible on Thursday.
