Issued: 2pm on Monday, June 19th 2023
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short Term (Monday 6/19/2023 through Thursday 6/22/2023)
There is a surface low pressure center that is dragging through the area bringing associated showers later this afternoon. With heat and moisture fueling this system, we could get some rumbles of thunder with this passage, but the upper-level low will eventually stack with this surface low, and we will see it weaken. Until then, vorticity is favoring the developing showers and thunderstorms later into Monday and lasting through Tuesday. Storms are expected to be weak. We are generally going to see lots of moisture present this week, keeping the likelihood for rain consistent. Even if rain doesn’t develop through mid-week, it will be muggy especially overnight. Daytime highs remain below average as we continue to see cold air being advected.
Long Term (Thursday 6/22/2023 through Monday 6/26/2023)
The chance for rain persists through the weekend as an upper-level trough is expected to dominate. This happens once we see a low from the Gulf carry north, which means moisture and heat will again be fueling the atmosphere. We are likely to see thunderstorms and showers with the appearance of this system, timing and amounts will refine as we approach the weekend.