Issued: 3pm on Thursday, March 9th 2023
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short Term (Thursday 3-9-23 through Sunday 3-12-23)
A pleasant Thursday was in store for us thanks to upper level ridging as well as surface high pressure that has built in during the past week. Unfortunately, this quiet weather will soon come to an end with the approach of an upper level shortwave trough and surface low pressure system from the west, resulting in the ridging pattern to shift off to the east tonight. Rain chances will thus make an appearance late tonight with the approach of this system. Rain chances will be more prominent during the day on Friday into Friday night, with a slight chance of a wintry mix after temperatures drop well below freezing Friday night after the passage of the associated cold front. However, no snow accumulation is expected, as the bulk of precipitation will be in the form of rain. In addition to this, a tightening pressure gradient behind the low pressure will yield gusty winds, with gusts up to 30 mph possible at times. Winds should begin to die down by Saturday morning after the passage of this system, with upper level ridging briefly building in on Saturday before the arrival of yet another low pressure system approaching from the west on Sunday. Models are in disagreement on the timing of when this system will arrive, with the European model showing chances for rain and snow showers Sunday morning, or as the GFS holds off until later in the day. Either way, you can expect chances for snow showers in the morning hours, transitioning to rain for the rest of the day. Again, no snow accumulation is expected as the majority of precipitation will be rain.
Long Term (Monday 3-13-23 through Thursday 3-16-23)
The aforementioned shortwave trough and low pressure system will be a slow-mover heading into the next work week, keeping lingering chances for rain and snow showers through Monday. Upper level ridging as well as surface high pressure will then build back into the central U.S. on Tuesday, shifting eastward and therefore providing a break from the active weather pattern. However, model guidance is showing a low pressure system riding the Canadian border Wednesday night into Thursday, which will possibly bring rain showers to the area late week. Of course, this is still seven days out, so forecasted conditions will likely change between now and then.