Issued: 12am on Thursday, January 1st 1970
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short term (Sunday 4/7 through Tuesday 4/9)
Showers and thunderstorms are possible on Sunday heading into the late afternoon and the evening. Clouds will increase through the afternoon ahead of an approaching warm front. The warm front will be driven by a shortwave trough. The combination of these two lifting mechanisms and energy from the heating from today will allow for updrafts to be formed and lead to thunderstorms. While CAPE and vorticity values are meager at best, shear is somewhat organized and may be why SE Ohio is on the edge of the marginal risk by the SPC. Some stronger winds may be produced from storms, but any other possible severe indicators are too low risk to mention. Precipitation values look to be around a tenth to a quarter of an inch with precipitable water amounts averaging around 1.1-1.3 inches. Showers and storms will likely continue Monday afternoon as a cold front passes through in the afternoon. The cold frontal boundary will be much more organized as vorticity values are much stronger that are associated with it. CAPE will be lower for Monday so storms won’t be any stronger than Sunday, but a few gusts could be possible if convection organizes along the front. Dry air behind the cold front will clear out clouds for Tuesday. Temperatures will remain in the 70s through this period due to clouds providing insulation overnight.
Long term (Wednesday 4/10 through Saturday 4/13)
Upper level ridging approaches on Wednesday. CAA is finally felt as cold air filters in as clouds decrease early that day. Highs will fall into the low to mid 60s. Clouds will disappear late Wednesday as upper level ridging creates weak high pressure into Thursday. An organizing low pressure system is present on Thursday in the Central Plains. A weak quasi-stationary front is present ahead of the system’s warm front. This initial front will move through and be followed closely behind by the warm front on the later half of Thursday. SE Ohio looks to be in the warm sector of the system on Friday resulting in unseasonably high temperatures in the high 70s. The cold front will push through on Saturday causing temperatures to dip down into the high 50s.