Issued: 12am on Thursday, January 1st 1970
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short term (Sunday 9/23 through Tuesday 9/25)
CAA will be present on Sunday as highs only reach the low 70s. Clouds will remain tonight due to moisture around a front approaching from the south. This front will stall to south around West Virginia. Enhanced moisture advection is present from the Gulf of Mexico that stream through Southeast Ohio. The front stalled to the south of the region will help push some moisture advection into the region resulting in chances for showers. The continuous cloud cover and moisture will keep CAPE at bay and ensure that precipitation is predominately rain showers. Showers tonight will be spotty since the frontal boundary is not directly over us, so showers will be most probable around peak heating time today and in the early evening as clouds will allow for insulation that will keep humidity high. Upper level ridging that exists on Monday will allow for moisture to move up north, increasing chances for showers in the area from the afternoon through the evening. A relatively strong upper level trough makes its way across the Midwest on Tuesday. Ahead of it will be a cold front that should just enter the state by Tuesday night. Southerly flow will bring some WAA as high slowly climb into the mid 70s on Tuesday. The approaching cold front will push more moisture in from the west as moisture in still prominent in the area. Showers are likely for all of Tuesday and an isolated thunderstorm can’t be ruled out.
Long term (Wednesday 9/26 through Saturday 9/29)
The cold frontal boundary will likely be over the area on Wednesday evening. The combination of the trough and dry air behind the cold frontal boundary will result in both pushing moisture out of the region heading into Thursday. Showers and a few isolated storms are possible on Wednesday as moisture will still be available in the morning. Showers will be possible from the late morning through the late afternoon. Then another chance for showers will exist as the cold frontal boundary moves into the region Wednesday night. CAA will be prevalent Wednesday night as lows drop to the high 50s. Drier air will be in the region early Thursday, but moisture will still exist as mid level southwesterly flow continues to advect moisture from the Gulf of Mexico region. This will continue the overcast conditions that the area will experience, but showers are not likely as high pressure will sit over the eastern portion of the Great Lakes and upper level flow will be largely zonal as the trough moves out and another approaches. Another cold front approaches on Friday. The propagation of moisture from the last front will result in this front having much less moisture to work with, making it weaker. Showers are not likely and conditions should clear as another wave of cold, dry air moves through the region, creating fair conditions on Saturday.
