Issued: 12am on Thursday, January 1st 1970
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short term (Wednesday 11/28 through Saturday 12/1)
Weak upper level ridging will approach region later today, which will result in some sky clearing for the latter half of Wednesday. Moisture in the upper levels will slowly move east on today as another band of moisture at 700mb is approaches for Thursday. Upper level ridging seems to weaken even more heading into Thursday. This lines up with when another band of moisture moves into the region. High pressure that is present in the Appalachians will halt cloud production from this source of moisture and keep Thursday relatively clear until the night. A small chance of showers exist Thursday night through Friday due to the presence of moisture. Models show a weak streak of vorticity that moves through Thursday afternoon. This forcing will have to compete with the high pressure, so showers will be spotty and have a relatively low chance of occurring. The vertical temperature profile allows for some sleet to possible form if showers do occur Thursday night. Another chance for showers exists Friday as a warm front associated with an incoming low pressure system moves in. As Saturday approaches, the region looks to be hit by both the warm and cold front as the low pressure system begins to decay. Moisture is deeply layered within the region that looks to hit Athens. That combined with a large area of upper level divergence could produce large amounts of rain. The system is moving at at an average pace, so while models have potential liquid water equivalent around an inch and a half, 1/2 to 3/4 is more likely.
Long term (Sunday 12/2 through Tuesday 12/4)
Dry air moves in behind the cold front on Sunday morning that will lead to cloud clearing. CAA that happens late Saturday will be removed Sunday as upper level ridging brings in southerly flow that brings in WAA as temperatures look to be in the low 60s for Sunday. Several disturbances are embedded in the upper levels for Sunday that look to weaken the overall pattern and begin to create a upper level trough in its place. Lingering high pressure on Monday will begin to deform as a low pressure system approaches late Monday. Clouds increase on Monday. The low pressure system will be in its earliest stages of forming when it passes past the area. Some precipitation could occur on Tuesday as the northwest sector of the pressure system looks to pass over Athens.
