Issued: 12am on Thursday, January 1st 1970
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short term (Wednesday 10/10 through Saturday 10/13)
A cold front attached to a low pressure system will continue to move eastward towards the region. Both the NAM and GFS have the frontal boundary moving in late Wednesday, early Thursday. Before the cold front arrives, moisture from the south will continue to be advected. This moisture is more than likely from hurricane Michael as surface flow is coming from the south and the hurricane is the only feature currently producing moisture within that region. Moisture ahead of the front will also mix in with moisture from the south, resulting in today’s string of showers. The timing of this front will mean CAPE will be nonexistent. The front itself looks to be strong (well-defined) as indicated from the positive vorticity ahead of it. The front will have deeply-layered moisture associated with it, so while severe weather is unlikely, a chance for flooding will exist as the frontal boundary moves over the region. So far the front is moving at a decent rate which will mitigate flooding risk. Some lingering showers will exist Thursday morning and early afternoon, but dry air behind the cold front will push out moisture and cloud cover. Starting Thursday night, cool, dry air will follow behind the frontal boundary resulting in strong CAA, which will give the area more seasonal temperatures for the upcoming weekend. CAA is strong most likely due to the strong temperature gradient between warm, moist air surrounding Hurricane Michael and cold, dry air from high pressure in the Central Plains. The high pressure that was mentioned will slowly make its way into the Midwest that will create dry conditions. A wavy upper level pattern and large jet streak create unstable conditions for Friday night and Saturday, possibly resulting in one or two showers.
Long term (Sunday 10/14 through Tuesday 10/16)
Another cold front will push through on Sunday that could create another chance for showers as a negatively titled trough makes it’s way into the Midwest. Moisture will stay in the area until early Tuesday as high pressure moves in behind the cold front. A small embedded upper-level ridge moves in on Tuesday that clears cloud cover and dries up the region. The cold front from Sunday will bring in another wave of CAA that continues to keep highs in the high 50s to low 60s. At the end of Tuesday, another cold front looks to push through the region which could bring another wave of showers for the mid-week.