Issued: 12am on Thursday, January 1st 1970
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short term (Sunday 7/8 through Tuesday 7/10)
High pressure is off to the East and Southeast which will keep the area clear and relatively dry tonight into Monday. Clear skies tonight will allow for another cool evening in the high 50s. Temperatures will slightly increase tomorrow nearing 90. While temperatures will be hot, it will be relatively dry, with the 700mb relative humidity parameter below 10 percent. High pressure will act a barrier by blocking any moisture advection on Monday, so heat advisories look to be unnecessary. An upper level trough on Tuesday will push an associated cold front into Ohio during the day on Tuesday. Showers and storms are most likely for our area in the late afternoon into the evening when the cold frontal boundary enters the region. With how dry the area will be prior to propagation of the front, precipitation is not as likely ahead of the front. The band of moisture associated with this front is quite narrow and models are showing sub-par CAPE values. This is showing that showers will be more likely than storms as convection will have trouble with production for long periods. CAA associated with the cold front will also result in a loss of heating, so storms will decrease in likelihood as the night progresses. Tuesday night will be slightly warmer than Monday as increased cloud cover will help insulate some of the daytime heating on Tuesday.
Long term (Wednesday 7/11 through Saturday 14)
High pressure from the Great Lakes region will closely follow the frontal system. It is expected to bring clear skies and dry conditions early Wednesday. CAA will continue as northerly flow continues to bring in cooler air. Highs on Wednesday are expected to be in the low 80s. Upper level patterns show a ridge attempting to form in the mid levels, but flow looks to remain zonal overall. Thursday, high pressure is closer to the area, which shall continue the trend of dry and clear conditions. On Friday, upper level zonal flow still exists, but a shortwave trough can be seen forming out west. There will be slight WAA at the end of the week that will slowly rise temperatures into the highs 80s/low 90s. Some moisture ahead of another approaching front associated with the shortwave will also be advected, raising humidity levels to around 40 percent. The cold front will reach Ohio on Saturday. Heating and available moisture will lead to pop up storms and showers in the region. High pressure will remain in West Virginia for Saturday and Sunday, so convection may tamper off before reaching the area. Storms and showers will be isolated as cloud cover increased through the end of the weekend.
