Issued: 12am on Thursday, January 1st 1970
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short term (Sunday 10/28 through Tuesday 10/30)
An upper level trough over the region will deepen late this evening. This will bring in a deep-layered mass of moisture that makes showers likely for this evening. Models show a weak jet streak to exist over the region on Monday. Athens will be situated over the area of the jet streak associated with sinking motion resulting in a decrease in cloud cover and moisture as time progresses. Showers should subside by early Monday. A small decrease in cloud cover and dry air will move in Monday afternoon. Upper level ridging will enter the area early Tuesday that will start a small warming trend and for the later half of the work week. WAA will be evident on Tuesday as highs breach the lower to mid 60s. Cloud cover will increase late Tuesday in response to an incoming cold front.
Long term (Wednesday 10/31 through Saturday 11/3)
Models show that the front is likely to stall just as it arrives in SE Ohio. The area should begin experiencing showers late Wednesday morning as moisture ahead of the front moves in. The heaviest precipitation will likely be late Wednesday as the downstream of the trough will be over the region. Moisture also looks deeply layered, which signifies heavy precipitation is possible. Some slight disagreements in the placement of the trough axis make it difficult to pin point where the heaviest precipitation will be exactly, but the potential exists for flooding for most of SE Ohio especially in the valley and riverbanks. Precipitation is likely for Thursday as well as the trough looks to deepen, keeping the region in the downstream section of the axis. The deepening of the trough and strengthening of upper level flow will push the stalled front eastward. Showers will cease for early Friday. The upper level pattern does not change much except for the trough gaining a negative tilt. A decaying low will move into the region Friday afternoon that could produce showers well into Saturday afternoon.