Issued: 12am on Thursday, January 1st 1970
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short term (Sunday 10/7 through Tuesday 10/9)
Ridging continues to move through the region on this evening. High pressure will be over Appalachia that will serve to keep cloud cover relatively clear through this evening. Upper level ridging will strengthen on Monday as moist, warm air moves up from the south. This will make for a humid day as the ridge will trap moisture over the region. Weak, widespread CAPE will exist on Monday, but ridging should keep most of the convection at bay, except for a small increase in clouds in the late afternoon. Temperatures on Monday could reach the high 80s, making for an unseasonably warm start to the week. On Tuesday, surface flow will weaken from the south, which in return will weaken WAA. The presence of moisture will still be present, but will weaken as temperatures only reach the low 80s. Ridging will remain strong through the first half of Tuesday, but will begin to deform Tuesday night.
Long term (Wednesday 10/10 through Saturday 10/13)
On Wednesday, a cold front attached to a low pressure system to our north will begin to propagate towards the region. Both the NAM and GFS have the frontal boundary moving in late Wednesday, early Thursday. Before the cold front arrives, the area will be under calm conditions. Cloud cover is likely to increase around the late morning as moisture arrives ahead of the front. Some moisture will also be contributed from the Gulf through the influence of the remains of tropical storm Michael. The timing of this front will mean CAPE will be nonexistent. The front itself looks to be strong (well-defined) as indicated from the positive vorticity ahead of it. The front will have deeply-layered moisture associated with it, so while severe risk is near zero, a chance for flooding will exist as the frontal boundary moves over the region. So far the front is moving at a decent rate which will mitigate flooding risk. Some lingering showers will exist Thursday morning, but dry air behind the cold front will push out moisture and cloud cover. CAA will be apparent as high for the weekend stay around in the 60s as the area heads into a more seasonable atmospheric state.