Issued: 6pm on Sunday, August 6th 2023
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-Term Forecast (Sunday Night 8/6/2023 through Tuesday Night 8/8/2023):
Tonight Athens County is under a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms, as issued by the SPC. There is marginal MLCAPE up to 1300 J/kg and some decent 0-6 km bulk shear values. However, mid-level lapse rates show conditionally unstable conditions. Therefore, it is reasonable for a few storms to potentially turn severe into the overnight hours.
SPC has placed Athens County under a slight risk for severe thunderstorms Monday. During the morning hours, a weak cold front is expected to pass, creating the necessary lift to fuel storms during the morning hours. A few storms may become severe, as bulk shear values peak near 35 kts and SRH values peak around 150 m^2/s^2, but are unlikely to persist for long. Once this group of storms pass, another round is expected in the afternoon, as the left exit of the upper-level jet streak enters the region, allowing divergence to dominate the region and once again bringing enhanced lift. MLCAPE is expected to peak around 1700J/kg with 40 kts 0-6 km bulk shear and 350 m^2/s^2 0-3 km SRH values, meaning that the environment is well equipped to produce some supercells with this second round of storms. These supercells have the chance to spin up a brief tornado, drop severe hail, and bring strong winds. Therefore, it is important to have multiple ways to receive warnings and stay weather aware during the afternoon period. A few showers are also expected to pop up into the overnight hours.
Tuesday is expected to remain mostly dry as the left entrance of the jet streak takes over, allowing convergence/sinking air to dominate. Skies will begin to clear into the afternoon hours, and temperatures will rise into the low 80s. Tuesday night will have clear skies, and temperatures will drop to the low 60s.
Long-Term Forecast (Wednesday 8/9/2023 through Saturday 8/12/2023):
Wednesday, high pressure will briefly dominate the region allowing for sunny skies and dry conditions throughout the day. However, by Thursday, an upper-level shortwave will enter the region bringing back the chance for rain. Unfortunately, short- and mid-range models do not make it out far enough to see whether conditions will be favorable for severe storms, but considering there is a shortwave and it looks like Athens will be located within the left exit of the jet streak, Thursday is definitely a day to keep an eye on in the coming model runs. Friday, a much smaller shortwave will pass through once again, bringing a small chance for precipitation. Saturday, high pressure should once again briefly dominate the region and allow for some drier conditions and partly cloudy skies.