Issued: 6pm on Thursday, October 23rd 2025
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-Term Forecast (Thursday 10/23/2025 through Saturday 10/25/2025):
A major ridge will fill into the region, primarily on Saturday. The backstream of a major trough aloft will slowly crawl its way over Ohio on Friday. Considerable expansion of 500 mb heights will follow alongside this trough as a major dominating high at the surface overtakes much of the eastern half of the United States. Slightly warmer temperatures will advect throughout the short-term, indicating a slight temperature increase for the next few days. However, 850 mb temperature anomalies still forecast temperatures to be relatively cooler than normal for this part of the state. A primarily dry airmass will remain over southeastern Ohio tonight and tomorrow, but moisture could move in from behind this dry airmass by Saturday. This will allow clouds to build on Saturday after fairly sunny skies tonight and Friday, although precipitation is unlikely. Overall, quiet conditions should be expected these next couple of days.
Long-Term Forecast (Sunday 10/26/2025 through Wednesday 10/29/2025):
By Sunday, the ridge will stay just to the west of Ohio, but generally stable conditions are expected. Clouds will persist as plenty of moisture remains in the region. Temperatures are likely to remain steady as temperature advection aloft stabilizes briefly, however, by the end of the long-term, a punch of cold air advection aloft may occur. This could lead to weak instability allowing precipitation to occur, but with surface temperatures in the mid-50s, anything exceeding rainfall is not expected. Come Monday, a weak cut-off low will slowly make its way towards the state but may further weaken and dissipate by the end of the day. Although not too long after this cut-off low merges with the air below it, another low at 500 mb just east to the state will strengthen throughout the day Tuesday and Wednesday, encompassing the state by midday Wednesday. We may see our greatest chance for rain on Wednesday as a surface low moves its way towards the state. We may see some considerable vertical motions on Wednesday at 850-500 mb as well as fairly strong relative vorticity, especially at 500 mb. For now, stable conditions are likely Sunday, though the atmosphere could destabilize just enough Monday through Wednesday to allow for rain to possible move through the region during this time. However, it’s too early to say with confidence.
