Current Forecast Meet the Forecaster

Issued: 12am on Thursday, January 1st 1970

Technical Forecast Discussion

Short term (Wednesday 8/22 through Saturday 8/25)

Upper level troughing will remain present this evening, but the lack of moisture or any nearby surface features will prevent convection from forming. CAA remains present tonight as the upper level trough allows colder air to move down from Canada. Lows are expected in the low to mid 50s with areas in the valley possibly getting even cooler. Upper level ridging begins to approach the region on Thursday as a high pressure system will be on the border of Indiana and Ohio. This will continue the clear and dry conditions. Some CAA begins to leave the area as highs slightly increase to the high 70s. Upper level ridging weakens on Friday as upper level flow becomes zonal. Some warm air from the South will slowly filter into the region to slowly increase temperatures to the low 80s for Friday. Some upper level ridging will remain on Saturday to continue the trend of weak WAA the region will experience. The lack of surface features does not look favorable for precipitation, but a large band of moisture will move through on Saturday, that could produce showers in the afternoon with assistance from diurnal heating.

Long term (Sunday 8/26 through Tuesday 8/28)

Sunday will see a transition from upper level ridging to troughing. Ridging will rest in the eastern Appalachia as troughing moves in from the west. Clouds will be plentiful in the morning as some moisture will remain from Saturday. Clouds will clear by the afternoon as highs reach the mid 80s. A isolated region of strong CAPE will be in the region Sunday with models agreeing around a max of 2500 J/kg. Moisture will not be readily available until late Sunday, so it is uncertain how much CAPE will actually be available by the time moisture is over the area. For now a small chance for storms will exist Sunday evening. The small chance for storms will carry over into early Monday until Upper level ridging arrives. Ridging will also trap mositure from before to create a humid day with highs in the high 80s. Ridging will continue to strengthen result in hot and clear conditions through Tuesday with highs possibly reaching the low 90s.

The next technical discussion will be Sunday 8/26