Issued: 7pm on Monday, December 11th 2023
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-term Forecast (Monday 12/11/2023 through Wednesday 12/13/2023):
Monday, surface high pressure begins to build in, allowing skies to begin to clear throughout the afternoon slowly. By nightfall, the skies should be clear, and temperatures will plummet into the low 20s and possibly into the upper teens.
The flow will remain fairly zonal aloft, but there will be slight ridging in the low levels, allowing for sunny skies on Tuesday. Additionally, there will be moderate southerly flow between 15-20 mph, which will advect some warmer air into the region, resulting in afternoon temperatures peaking in the seasonably warm low 50s. By Tuesday night, the strong upper-level jet will advect another cold air mass into our region. No precipitation is expected with the associated weak cold front as the atmosphere is too dry.
Wednesday, high pressure will once again build in behind the cold front. Aloft, the flow will remain zonal, but ridging will increase in the lower levels. Sunny skies and near-normal temperatures in the low 40s are anticipated. In combination with the cold air mass overhead, radiative cooling will allow for nighttime lows on Wednesday to drop into the mid-to-upper-teens.
Long-term Forecast (Thursday 12/14/2023 through Saturday 12/16/2023):
Strong upper-level ridging will build into the region on Thursday, with fairly moderate NVA to support the high for the coming days. Weak WAA coupled with sunny skies will allow for fair afternoon temperatures in the upper 40s for December and the end of the work week/start of the weekend. It will be a great time to get outside and destress between taking and studying for finals this week, as well as provide great driving conditions for students driving home for winter break.