Issued: 12am on Thursday, January 1st 1970
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short term (Sunday 10/21 through Tuesday 10/23)
Upper level troughing deepens as the axis exits the region on for the rest of today, putting the area in the downstream portion of the trough. The secondary cold front from Saturday will bring another batch of cold, dry air through the region tonight as skies remain clear. Southerly surface flow exists on Monday that will bring slight WAA into the region as highs slowly climb up into the mid to high 50s. High pressure over the Virginias will also serve to continue the trend of clear skies and calm conditions. Heading into Tuesday, a ridge can be seen strengthening over the Central Plains. This will bring localized high pressure and relatively barotropic condition’s that serve to continue clear conditions into the later half of the work week.
Long term (Wednesday 10/24 through Saturday 10/27)
Upper level ridging becomes less uniform as it moves into the Midwest. Skies stay clear as moisture stay above the Great Lakes for Wednesday as high pressure rests over Northern Michigan. On Thursday, a few shortwave disturbances are presence in the Central Plains, but the continuation of clear conditions will continue. Heading into Friday, the shortwave disturbances will bring with them a large mass of moisture. Models do not currently show showers occurring on Friday, but they cannot be ruled out as vorticity will exist ahead of this pre-frontal air mass that could act as a forcing mechanism. A decaying low pressure system moves in near the region on late Saturday that brings in another mass of moisture and stronger instability that will likely bring in showers Saturday night.
