Issued: 7pm on Thursday, November 30th 2023
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-Term (Thursday PM 11/30/2023 through Sunday 12/3/2023):
A shortwave trough moving into the region Friday will bring a surface low associated with the left exit region of the upper-level jet streak. This surface low pressure will bring strong warm air advection and moisture advection with a strong low-level jet into the region Friday and likely rain showers through the weekend.
After this system passes off to the east, a strong wave of PVA will push into the region with another shortwave that will bring yet another surface low. On Sunday into Sunday night, this next low-pressure system will bring more rain showers ahead of the cold front after a brief break from showers. The cold front associated with this system is expected to move through with southwesterly flow, dropping daytime highs back into the high 40s and low 50s.
Long-Term (Monday 12/4/2023 through Wednesday 12/6/2023):
After the passage of the aformentioned surface low, the cold air mass will stick around the region due to the placement of the jet stream. Just in case you thought there would be a break from the rain and cold, I regret to inform you that ANOTHER trough is going to dig down into our region. This positively tilted trough is expected to bring colder air into the region with strong northerly flow aloft and mix colder air down to the surface as the surface low traverses the Great Lakes region. An occluded front is expected to have formed with this system which will bring more rain showers to the region as this system pushes through the region.
As the system passes to our east, some winter precipitation in the form of snow showers will be possible across the state. Winter weather impacts are expected to be minimal, but make sure to stay tuned to later forecasts for up-to-date information.
Synopsis:
Thursday PM – Sunday: Chances for rain increasing, rain showers likely through Sunday.
Monday – Tuesday: Rain showers stick around, chance for precipitation decreasing.
Wednesday: Show flurries/showers possible, minimal impacts expected at this time.
