Issued: 12am on Thursday, January 1st 1970
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short term (Wednesday 10/31 through Saturday 11/3)
Heavy precipitation is likely late Wednesday as the downstream of the trough will be over the region. Moisture also looks deeply layered, which signifies heavy precipitation is likely. The placement of the trough axis puts the heaviest precipitation within the region as it lines up nearly identically with the frontal boundary. The potential exists for flooding for most of SE Ohio especially in the valley and riverbanks as Moisture is entrenched in the upper and mid levels, plus models have precipitable water around 1.4 to 1.5 inches. Precipitation is likely for Thursday as well as the trough looks to deepen, keeping the region in the downstream section of the axis. The deepening of the trough and strengthening of upper level flow will push the stalled front eastward. Showers will cease for early Friday. The upper level pattern does not change much except for the trough gaining a negative tilt. A decaying low will move into the region Friday afternoon that could produce showers throughout the day and early evening. The trough will gain a negative tilt early Saturday that will allow it to begin moving out of our region. Showers and cloud cover will remain for Saturday for the morning as the region enters the upstream section of the trough, conditions will slowly clear as an upper level shortwave ridge will be generated on Saturday.
Long term (Sunday 11/4 through Tuesday 11/6)
The region will remain in an area of upper level ridge for Sunday. An upper level trough is visible to the east trying to organize, but does not disrupt upper level patterns for Sunday. Ridging is relatively weak, but WAA is present as highs will reach the low 60s. A low pressure system in the Central Plains will bring a small amount of moisture in for Sunday, but is driven northward by mid-level flow, so only slight cloud cover and relatively dry conditions can be expected for Sunday. The downstream portion of the upper level trough will reach the region late Monday. Cloud cover will increase as Monday progresses. Showers become likely for Tuesday as a low pressure system moves through the state. The trough looks to dig through Tuesday, so there is a small possibility of a thunderstorm or two as the low pressure system looks to be strong which will mean abundant instability.