Issued: 8am on Thursday, April 16th 2026
Technical Forecast Discussion
Key Messages:
- Severe storms are possible Saturday with the main threat likely being severe wind gusts with this line of storms.
- Temperatures will cool dramatically by Sunday as stable conditions follow close behind the low from Saturday.
Short-Term Forecast (Thursday 04/16/2026 through Saturday 04/18/2026):
An Alberta Clipper will continue to develop into the coming days, just sweeping the Dakotas into Saturday, maturing into a proper mid-latitude cyclone by mid-to-late Friday. A trough will dig Thursday through Saturday, developing a negative tilt come Saturday. We may see some showers today as a weak band of moisture pushes eastward today, but we’ll quickly dry out on Friday as a minor ridge develops over the state. With this ridge and the positioning of the stationary front above Ohio, we can expect temperatures to remain hot in the upper-70s and near 80 through Saturday. With a tightening pressure gradient in advance of this surface low, we can expect gusty conditions on Saturday. Storms this day may be severe, though the biggest threat may be strong severe wind gusts with these linear storms. Precipitation isn’t expected to be long lived as this occluded low rapidly pushes northeastward into Canada, strongly advecting colder air behind it.
Long-Term Forecast (Sunday 04/19/2026 through Wednesday 04/22/2026):
Significantly stable air will rapidly fill in right behind Saturday’s low, dropping our temperatures by roughly 20 degrees Sunday. Sunday and Monday will chill in the upper-50s before warming up Tuesday and Wednesday. The trough aloft will sit over Ohio Sunday and Monday before ejecting eastward, bringing in weakly zonal flow behind it. High-pressure will dominate over Ohio for much of the early work week, a warm front in Canada will aid in warmer southwesterly air to advect into the state, resulting in the warmer temperatures we can expect Tuesday and Wednesday. Unsettled weather is expected to remain clear out of the state for the foreseeable future, resulting in the persistence of stable conditions through next week.
