Issued: 8am on Thursday, August 14th 2025
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-Term Forecast (Thursday 08/14/2025 through Saturday 08/16/2025):
Aloft, a ridge will develop and remain over the region during the short-term with high-pressure associated at the surface. After rain and storms on Wednesday, more stable conditions are expected to follow. Some moisture will still be present in the morning hours Thursday to allow clouds to persist from the evening prior, but as a drier air mass pushes in behind the surface cold front, clouds are likely to dissipate exponentially by Thursday evening through Saturday. Generally warm air between 500 and 925 mb is expected to continue over the Ohio Valley region, keeping temperatures warm and further pushing stability in the atmosphere. Throughout the short-term, 500 mb heights will trend generally positively with a broad isobaric gradient. Stable conditions will define this period with practically no chances for unsettled weather.
Long-Term Forecast (Sunday 08/17/2025 through Wednesday 08/20/2025):
A large ridge will overtake much of the United States beginning on Sunday. This ridge will be quite potent and will be a primary driver alongside high-pressure at the surface for continuing stable conditions for much of the long-term. However, come Tuesday into Wednesday, a trough will form just east of Ohio, diminishing our chances for showers associated with that trough, but a shortwave could develop just west of the state that could bring some destabilization. Throughout the lower levels of the atmosphere, generally warm air will primarily advect into the region, but by Tuesday and especially Wednesday, relatively cooler air from Canada will rapidly replace the hotter air in Ohio. At 500 mb, temperatures could remain relatively warm with stable lapse rates throughout the atmosphere, making it difficult to destabilize the atmosphere. Vertical velocity values Tuesday evening are strong between 850 and 500 mb, indicating strong lifting potential if any convection occurs, however these values will slightly decrease in intensity on Wednesday. If any rain showers develop on Tuesday or Wednesday, relative vorticity values are unlikely to support long-lived cells, keeping any precipitation totals low.
