Issued: 8am on Thursday, August 7th 2025
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-Term Forecast (Thursday 08/07/2025 through Saturday 08/09/2025):
Much of the same conditions are expected in the short-term forecast. A minor ridge will quickly move over Ohio Thursday, quickly dissipating by the evening as it merges with a much larger ridge moving into Friday morning. Associated with this ridge is a large swath of high-pressure at the surface and aloft. While falling heights at 500 mb could be present on Thursday, cold air advection at the mid-levels is incredibly weak, and by the end of the short-term could weaken even further. Moisture at the mid-levels and aloft will remain fairly dry generally from the west and north, though southerly winds near the surface will bring moisture up towards Ohio. This small amount of moisture could produce some clouds near the surface and at the mid-levels, they aren’t expected to produce an excessive amount. Thankfully, relative humidity values at the surface aren’t anticipated to be overwhelming as the Appalachian Mountains dry out most of the surface moisture from these southeasterly winds. A large, warm air mass will sit over the central and Midwest United States, and as skies continue to clear out, temperatures are only expected to rise during and through the short-term.
Long-Term Forecast (Sunday 08/10/2025 through Wednesday 08/13/2025):
The ridge aloft and high-pressure at the surface will continue into Sunday, keeping the region dry and stable. Though by Monday, a trough is expected to follow behind this ridge that could bring some instability into the region. While warm air advection will stay strong aloft and especially near the surface, cold air advection at 700 mb could strengthen slightly, especially as a surface cold front pushes southeastward from a mid-latitude cyclone in southern Canada. 500 mb height tendency will remain fairly stable Sunday through Monday, but by Tuesday this tendency could drop throughout the day, though not substantially. Dry air will continue from the short-term forecast, persisting through Monday, but westerly and southwesterly winds will bring moist air up from the Gulf that could provide moisture to slightly enhance instability Tuesday and Wednesday. Fairly strong vertical velocity values between 850 and 500 mb could provide enough vertical motion for convection to occur, especially as that surface cold front moves toward and over Ohio Tuesday and Wednesday. If any showers, and possibly even some thunderstorms, develop, they are unlikely to last for an extended period of time and aren’t expected to produce a significant quantity of rainfall.
