Issued: 8am on Thursday, July 10th 2025
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-Term Forecast (Thursday 07/10/2025 through Saturday 07/12/2025):
Relatively zonal flow aloft will dominate the short-term providing fairly calm conditions Thursday and Friday. A warm air mass is expected to push eastward into the Ohio Valley as moisture from the Gulf pushes itself northward. Much of this moisture will remain near and at the surface, bringing in some low-level cloud cover to finish out the work week. Pressure tendency aloft will trend upward, and as a ridge begins to form Friday evening into Saturday, a more stable air mass will blanket the region. While a surface front pulling back and forth from a cold front to a stationary front in the short-term, generally sunny conditions will be present Thursday through Saturday as higher pressure situates itself near Ohio. Moving into Saturday a trough will begin to define itself in the northern Great Plains, moving eastward towards the Ohio Valley throughout the day. While the skies are expected to remain clear, a classic mid-latitude cyclone will develop at the surface by Saturday morning, putting Ohio in the warm sector of this system. Plenty of moisture near the surface Saturday evening is likely to continue into Sunday overnight and into the daytime hours.
Long-Term Forecast (Sunday 07/13/2025 through Wednesday 07/16/2025):
Sunday is the day likely to experience some unsettled weather in this forecast. As previously mentioned, surface and near-surface moisture will continue through the overnight hours into the daytime Sunday. As surface temperatures remain fairly high, plenty of moisture is expected to remain by the morning hours. The upper-level trough will continue to push eastward with the mid-latitude cyclone following alongside it. Warm air will advect aloft and near the surface with a cooler layer of warm air advection at 700 mb. While not a significant set up for convection to develop, the hot air and moisture present at the surface could help develop showers and storms throughout Sunday. Slight falling heights, a respectable amount of vertical velocities between 850-500 mb, and cyclonic vorticity at 500 mb will only enhance the chances of showers and possibly storms to develop. By Monday, the surface cold front will pass over the region, cooling and drying out the region. While showers and storms are still possible Monday, much of the moisture from the day prior will quickly be forced out of the region by the late afternoon and evening. While the ingredients for convection are present Monday, the moisture needed to develop any showers or storms are not likely to be present. Wednesday could be an additional chance for showers and storms as yet another trough begins to develop aloft. A noticeable shortwave can be seen with some cyclonic vorticity advection in the jet streak seen at 500 mb. Enough vertical velocity and relative vorticity between 850-500 mb will be present for any storms to develop and move through during Wednesday. A decent profile of moisture and dry air throughout the atmosphere could be present to further support the development of showers and storms Wednesday. However, it is currently too early to tell if anything will become of this.
