Issued: 8am on Thursday, July 17th 2025
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-Term Forecast (Thursday 07/17/2025 through Saturday 07/19/2025):
A jet streak aloft will form in the early morning hours Thursday, slowly pushing its way eastward into northern Ohio. Relatively drier air aloft will bring in relatively warm air from the west while near the surface and mid-levels, warmer moist air will push up from the Gulf. An embedded shortwave trough will move eastward along the Great Lakes, increasing the chance for showers and storms. In combination with a surface low-pressure system and a cold front, storms are likely to fire off along this cold front Thursday by early afternoon. With building instability throughout the daytime hours, these storms are likely to feed off of the moisture at the surface as dew points could reach the lower-to-mid-70s majority of the day. The southwesterly winds will only continue to feed moisture into the region. Continuing into Friday and Saturday, moisture and temperature values are likely to repeat with drier air aloft and moisture at the surface. Another surface low will develop and travel alongside the Ohio River Friday with a prominent warm front behind it. Showers and storms are likely to remain south of this warm front as convection likely dissipates from a lack of moisture aloft to support cloud development. Saturday will see yet another development of a jet streak aloft above the Great Lakes. A very small, embedded shortwave could develop over much of Ohio late Saturday. Convection will likely be prominent Saturday with adequate vertical velocity values throughout the 850-500 mb levels with a decent amount of cyclonic vorticity at the same levels. Falling heights at 500 mb are expected to contribute to destabilizing the atmosphere.
Long-Term Forecast (Sunday 07/20/2025 through Wednesday 07/23/2025):
Warm air advection will dominate much of the long-term forecast throughout the atmosphere as generally westerly winds move towards Ohio. While some moisture will be present Sunday and Monday throughout the atmosphere, a significant dry air mass will move through the state. As surface high pressure moves in and this loss of moisture content, cloud cover is expected to slowly dwindle next week. However, Sunday still contains the chance for showers and thunderstorms as a mid-latitude cyclone at the surface sits around northeastern Ohio with the warm sector of this system. Dew points will be significantly high near the upper-70s Sunday, indicating a substantial amount of moisture is present at the surface for storms to develop and utilize if any are to form. A considerable amount of vertical velocity could be present Sunday, and, as a cold front moves through the day, will have the possibility to help initiate any cells to develop. As we move into the start of the work week, more stable conditions are expected as a large upper-level ridge develops over much of the CONUS. With high-pressure developing and clearer skies all possible during this time, we could look forward to a break from the dreary conditions that have been plaguing the region. 500 mb height tendencies are expected to generally trend upwards as a broader gradient aloft develops.
