Issued: 8am on Thursday, July 24th 2025
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-Term Forecast (Thursday 07/24/2025 through Saturday 07/26/2025):
A major dome of high-pressure remains over much of the continental United States, keeping our weather dry and hot. This ridge will briefly break off into a very minor trough aloft early Friday morning with an arriving surface cold front. At 850 mb, vertical velocity values are relatively strong, suggesting that potential lift near the surface could exist; although, at 700 and 500 mb, these values are not as strong, and may not be enough to sustain convection development. Much of the mid-to-upper atmosphere remains fairly dry with minimal moisture, and while the surface and near-surface have some moisture, it may not have enough to condense into a large swath of clouds to produce a substantial quantity of precipitation. With this low-level moisture content, any water vapor to condense will likely remain low-to-mid-level stratiform clouds. Some moisture may sneak in around 200 and 300 mb Friday and Saturday, possibly producing showers with some rumbles of thunder, but this is not expected to last and could return Sunday. Throughout the atmosphere, warm air will majorly convect from the west-southwest in response to this major upper-level ridge and surface high-pressure, allowing temperatures to continuously soar into the lower-to-mid 90s for the remainder of the short-term.
Long-Term Forecast (Sunday 07/27/2025 through Wednesday 07/30/2025):
Looking into the long-term, this major ridge of high-pressure aloft and at the surface is expected to continue. After Friday and Saturday’s rain chances, Sunday could also see some rain showers as a warm front passes over the Ohio Valley. However, the same problems that Friday faces in terms of rain chances returns Sunday. While near-surface vertical velocity is respectable, mid-level values are not as strong as they are near the surface, forcing any rising parcel to work harder to rise. However, if the relatively small amount of moisture at and near the surface is buoyant enough, it could push through the dry air aloft to weakly form clouds and precipitation on Sunday. Throughout the long-term, warm air throughout all levels will continue pushing from the west-southwest which is expected to keep Ohio under sweltering heatwave conditions, especially as a warm front keeps the area behind it bringing hot air northward from the south. However, this large ridge thankfully has the chance to slowly decay by Wednesday, bringing the small hope for a cooldown nearing the end of next week! While a ridge and high-pressure likely could still hover over Ohio, it may not be as intense as the current ridging pattern which will allow temperatures to possibly dip back into the mid-80s.
