Issued: 8am on Thursday, July 31st 2025
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-Term Forecast (Thursday 07/31/2025 through Saturday 08/02/2025):
Not much will change in the short-term forecast from what it is currently except for Thursday. Throughout the overnight hours, a surface cold front connected to a long line of low-pressure systems moved over southern Ohio. Alongside with it is a trough aloft slowly pushing eastward with strong westerly winds situated over Ohio. Starting Thursday, however, is a consistent transport of cooler air between 500 mb and the near surface between Thursday and Saturday, indicating a brief break from the persistent heat dome we’ve been experiencing recently. Destabilization of the atmosphere on Thursday with cooler air aloft and warmer air at the surface will help prime Ohio for some possible rain and thunderstorms. As this surface cold front moves through Ohio, the moisture present at the surface will provide enough energy for convection to occur and rain to develop behind it. While much of the rain will remain in northern Ohio, vertical velocity values are consistently strong enough throughout the 500-850 mb layers in Athens and the surrounding areas to allow continuous uplift of air. Relative vorticity values are also at a respectable level, though primarily at 850 mb, and much of the stronger values at 700 and 500 mb are primarily sticking to central and northern Ohio. If rain or thunderstorms develop Thursday, they could track for a longer time so long as relative vorticity values and uplift remain strong. Moving into Friday and Saturday, while some instability persists, the moisture content throughout the atmosphere will not be as potent as it is on Thursday, especially as an upper-level ridge and high-pressure fills right back into place. Clouds are expected to dramatically decrease, and sunny skies will bring the heat back once more.
Long-Term Forecast (Sunday 08/03/2025 through Wednesday 08/06/2025):
The long-term will provide us very similar weather conditions that has defined July so far. High-pressure at the surface will only spread throughout the eastern United States. With a trough and ridge situated north and south of each other aloft, westerly winds at the mid-levels will transport warmer air towards Ohio, and because of the positioning of these waves, it could sandwich the warm air throughout the mid-to-near surface levels throughout the long-term. This, in return, could only enhance hot conditions and fair weather moving into next week. With a lack of substantial and consistent moisture throughout the atmosphere Sunday and Monday, we could see clear skies throughout those days. By Tuesday and Wednesday, some moisture will move through and could allow clouds to faintly develop. Enough moisture could be present on Wednesday to not only assist in the development of clouds but could bring the chance rain showers as well. However, it is too far out to accurately tell at this time.
