Issued: 12am on Thursday, January 1st 1970
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short term (Thursday 5/23 through Saturday 5/25)
Upper level ridging will leave the area today ahead of an incoming low pressure system. A shortwave trough will form and move into through Ohio today ahead of a cold front. The lift from the disturbance plus the strong surface heating from being in the warm sector will create strong updrafts that make storms likely this evening. SPC has the region under a slight risk for severe weather. This is due to moderate instability and shearing being available with conditions at the time. CAPE values look to reach 2000 J/kg by the evening and shearing is around 40-50 knots in the mid levels and roughly 30 knots in the lower levels. Helicity values are also strong enough that rotation in some storms in possible. With these parameters some cells ahead of an organized convective look to be the most likely storm mode. The main threats will be high winds and hail, but there is a small risk for tornadoes as stated by the SPC due to helicity and low-level shear. After the system exits on Friday, upper level ridging will return negating some of the CAA brought by the cold front on Thursday. This will leave temps in the mid to low 80s depending on cloud cover amount. A small disturbance to the west late Friday will create a stationary front near the region on Saturday that will morph into a warm front that brings another chance for showers and storms.
Long term (Sunday 5/26 through Tuesday 5/28)
The low pressure system that brings the warm front on Saturday will spin out and leave a residual stationary front in Northern Ohio. Moisture in the region on Sunday and an embedded jet streak in the area create conditions for precipitation as updrafts are promoted by the hot surface temperatures on Sunday. Zonal flow turns into upper level ridging on Monday that clears out moisture and cloud cover for Memorial Day. Moisture is advected far out in front of an approaching cold front that will make Tuesday humid and hot, but otherwise relatively clear.