Issued: 8am on Thursday, May 29th 2025
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-Term Forecast (Thursday 05/29/2025 through Saturday 05/31/2025):
In the short-term, relatively zonal flow aloft will situate itself over Ohio most of the day Thursday. As the day progresses, a clear trough will begin to develop into Friday. By Friday evening, the trough will deepen dramatically over Ohio as a surface low moves towards the East Coast. By early Friday morning, mid-level heights will begin to fall as cold air advection follows alongside it. Dry air near the top of the troposphere will be transported alongside moist air at the mid-levels and surface, encouraging slight destabilization on Friday. Ascending air will allow the propagation of clouds early Friday morning as well; with all this in mind, southern Ohio could see some storms Friday afternoon and evening. However, much of the rain expected will likely hit before 12 pm. Depending on the timing and the total amount of instability in the atmosphere by the afternoon, storms may not even form. By Saturday, a surface cold front will push through as the tail-end of the trough aloft moves eastward, allowing mid-level heights to rise and the atmosphere to stabilize.
Long-Term Forecast (Sunday 06/01/2025 through Wednesday 06/04/2025):
Thankfully, the long-term forecast is much more straightforward. With the exit of the upper-level trough, an incredibly broad ridge will fill in its place over much of the eastern CONUS. The presence of surface high-pressure, continuous height rises, and sinking air will only enhance a stable air mass to persist. Clouds will rapidly dissipate Saturday, allowing skies to remain quite sunny into the early work week. Any cloud formation to occur could likely develop into stratocumulus because of the presence of moisture at the surface, but dry air above preventing any further vertical development. Otherwise, a pleasantly boring week will greet us in the long-term.
