Issued: 8am on Thursday, May 8th 2025
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-Term Forecast (Thursday 05/08/2025 through Saturday 05/10/2025):
Surface low pressure could bring rain today, although the chance isn’t very high. Despite there being some ingredients for precipitation to occur— such as a building trough, convergence aloft, moisture at the surface—there isn’t a high likelihood of it occurring, much less be significant. A temperature inversion will occur very close to the surface (around roughly 975 mb) to just near the surface at 950 mb, causing any moisture to precipitate will likely only be a drizzle. Because of this inversion convection is likely to be inhibited with minimal vertical mixture of air. The chain of low-pressure systems will fizzle out and merge into a larger system in New England. This system will then push northeastward, and the cyclonic rotation of it will advect dry, cool air from Canada down into Ohio. A broad upper-level ridge will then engulf much of the central and eastern portion of the United States, leaving Ohio with high-pressure and stable conditions.
Long-Term Forecast (Sunday 05/11/2025 through Wednesday 05/14/2025):
The upper-level ridge and high-pressure will persist into much of Sunday and early Monday. However, a developing cut-off low will slowly make its way northeastward from Texas up through Appalachia. Upper-level heights will begin to fall, although not dramatically, allowing the atmosphere to slowly destabilize come Monday and Tuesday. Aloft, cold air and moisture will begin to advect from the Gulf and associated low pressure. Downstream mid-level vorticity will promote convergence near the surface, and plenty of moisture at all levels will allow air parcels to become buoyant. Thunderstorm chances will rise on Tuesday as on and off isolated showers move through the region. By Wednesday, a ridge aloft will slowly make its way eastward following this trough. With sinking air associated upstream of this wave pattern, we can expect slightly stable conditions Wednesday with minimal precipitation and cloud cover.
