Issued: 8am on Thursday, November 13th 2025
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-Term Forecast (Thursday 11/13/2025 through Saturday 11/15/2025):
Clearing skies and a warming trend is expected during the short-term as generally southwesterly winds bring up warmer air from the Gulf. Alongside that, a warm front associated with a then-occluded mid-latitude cyclone will pass over the state, allowing temperatures to soar into the mid-60s by Saturday. An overall ridging pattern will dominate over much of the Midwest during this time, leading to a stable atmosphere for the state. 500 mb height tendency will be overall generally positive with weak warm air advection Thursday and Friday. However, stronger warm air advection may be seen Saturday as the aforementioned warm front pushes over the region during this time. Dry air will dominate throughout much of the atmosphere Thursday and Friday, however, ahead of the expected warm front could bring moisture throughout the region and state, allowing for clouds to build and maybe even showers throughout the day. Any rain, however, is not expected to be substantial nor significant during the day Saturday. While gusty conditions are expected to die down these next couple of days, the approaching mid-latitude cyclone on Saturday will bring back wind gusts of up to 20 mph on Saturday.
Long-Term Forecast (Sunday 11/16/2025 through Wednesday 10/19/2025):
Clouds are expected to rapidly decrease Sunday morning as the mid-latitude rapidly exits the state. An associated cold front is expected to follow thereafter, dropping our temperatures back in the mid-50s. A weak trough will likely develop over the state, slightly enhancing cooler temperatures during this time. High-pressure will return Sunday and Monday, keeping the skies clear and stable, but another surface low may return come Tuesday and Wednesday. Confidence of precipitation is still uncertain at this time, but we may see some mid-level moisture enter the region which could be utilized for rain chances Tuesday and Wednesday. Although, we may see some zonal flow development on Wednesday, so it’s still up in the air on what these two days will bring. Gusty conditions may still continue from Saturday as gusts may reach up to 25 mph in some spots, but thankfully, windy conditions will die down once more come Monday. Overall, minimal precipitation is expected early on in the long-term, but we may see the return of rain showers Tuesday and Wednesday with the arrival of another weak surface low.
