Issued: 8am on Wednesday, November 5th 2025
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-Term Forecast (Thursday 11/05/2025 through Saturday 11/08/2025):
Skies are expected to be clear Thursday as high-pressure remains over the region. Clouds will begin to build as another surface low makes its way eastward towards the state as a weak trough follows alongside it. Troughing patterns will persist through Saturday, bringing cold, Canadian air down into the region this weekend and beyond. 500 mb height tendency is expected to drop Friday as the approaching low deepens, possibly bringing us rain ahead of a cold front by then. Cold air is expected to advect late Saturday, particularly aloft at 500 mb. Weaker cold air advection may be present below this level, but not dramatically. Much of this advection will be seen in the long term, but it may begin just before in the short-term. Temperatures may remain slightly warmer Friday and Saturday, albeit windy on Friday. Gusts may reach up to 25 mph in some areas with sustained winds around 15 mph. Once an initial cold front moves over the region, clouds could dissipate for the most part, bringing sunny skies once again by then.
Long-Term Forecast (Sunday 11/09/2025 through Wednesday 10/12/2025):
As previously mentioned, cold air advection will punch into the state by Sunday but will be intense come Monday. As a strong, deep trough digs towards the Gulf Sunday into Monday, a swath of fridged Canadian air will fill the region. The beginning of the long-term will see temperatures rapidly decline into the 40s and maybe even 30s. A deep low will pass over the state Sunday and Monday, but lingering tight pressure gradients alongside strong 500 mb relative vorticity will keep our conditions active. Windy conditions will persist into much of next week, bringing the possible concern of wind chill making temperatures feel even worse. Though this troughing pattern will weaken significantly come Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures won’t bounce back into the upper-50s and 60s and could remain in the lower-50s and upper-40s. Unsettled weather at the surface will encourage persistent cloud cover for the remainder of the long-term, taking away any relief from the sun. This intense dip in temperatures Monday may bring some minor snow showers during this time alongside the low at the surface. Some amounts of moisture may be present come Monday, so snow development could very-well be a possibility. However, uncertainty still remains this far out.
