Issued: 8am on Thursday, October 2nd 2025
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-Term Forecast (Thursday 10/02/2025 through Saturday 10/04/2025):
Major ridging will cover most of the eastern United States alongside intense surface high-pressure. Temperatures aloft will remain steady and warm with some small layer of cool air at 700 mb. 500 mb heights will also remain steady and stable, disallowing any wiggle room for changes in the atmosphere. An intense dry air mass aloft will inhibit most cloud development and growth, though some moisture at 850 mb may exist throughout the short-term. Some clouds may build Thursday and Friday then dissipating by Saturday as a wave of dry air overtakes the remainder of the atmosphere. Temperatures will remain steady as southerly winds bring these warmer temperatures up towards Athens and its surroundings; though, much of the heat will remain to our west, thankfully. Unfortunately, with major dry conditions, our drought is unlikely to improve.
Long-Term Forecast (Sunday 10/05/2025 through Wednesday 10/08/2025):
In the long-term, the ridge will soon weaken slightly as an approaching trough may put us near the upstream half of it. A jet streak may form from this trough, but it’s not expected to move over Ohio. Dry conditions throughout the atmosphere will likely condition Sunday and Monday, but an approaching surface cold front may bring plenty of moisture throughout all levels on Tuesday. Clouds are likely to form ahead of this cold front, and as a result from this frontal boundary, surface temperatures are expected to cool, thankfully. While way beyond the long-term, the start of some cold air advection near the surface and in the mid-levels could be seen on Wednesday, but primarily Thursday and Friday as that cold front is expected to pass over then. 500 mb geopotential heights are likely to fall slightly as this cold front and associated surface low passes to the north of the state. Tuesday and Wednesday are the days with the highest probability for rainy weather, and thankfully thunderstorms are not expected at this time. Otherwise, relatively stable for most of the forecast, though we may see some showers by the mid-week next week.
