Issued: 8am on Thursday, October 9th 2025
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-Term Forecast (Thursday 10/09/2025 through Saturday 10/11/2025):
A considerable ridge will make its way over to the state throughout the short-term. Stable conditions are expected to follow especially with high-pressure at the surface. An omega block will define itself over the continental United States but leaving a some troughing Friday into Saturday at 500 mb as a developing strong cut-off low stalls over Ohio Saturday and Sunday. 500 mb height tendency will remain relatively stable, though may begin to decrease on Saturday. Generally cooler air will settle over Ohio during this time, though near surface temperatures at 925 mb may still have some relatively warm temperatures at this level. Dry conditions will continue aloft and near the surface, but as a mid-latitude cyclone moves towards the region, we may have some moisture transport throughout all levels that make any rain chances possible. Otherwise, generally stable, but relatively chilly conditions to finish out the work week.
Long-Term Forecast (Sunday 10/12/2025 through Wednesday 10/15/2025):
As the minor mid-latitude cyclone ejects eastward at the surface and combined with the cut-off low aloft, we may see some rain on Sunday. The 500 mb cut-off low will stall over the state until Monday, merging with a ridge by Tuesday. Overall high-pressure will cover much of the region throughout this time. 500 mb height tendency will dramatically increase from Saturday, indicating stabilizing conditions for the start of next week. Temperatures at the surface will be steady around 70, and generally warm temperatures will fill into the state at 925 and 850 mb. Dry air will return Sunday and Monday, though some moisture could make its way once more Tuesday and possibly parts of Wednesday. This moisture is not expected to contribute to any precipitation development, but may make some clouds present during this time.
