Issued: 8am on Thursday, September 18th 2025
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-Term Forecast (Thursday 09/18/2025 through Saturday 09/20/2025):
The short-term will see similar conditions from the past month. As expected, high-pressure and an upper-level ridge are dominating features over Ohio. These features are expected to continue into Saturday, and while a surface cold front could briefly pass over Athens County early Saturday morning, cooler air likely won’t be felt. At the mid-levels of 500 and 700 mb, colder air will, in fact, advect into the region, assisted by the surface low-pressure located just east of the Dakotas by this time, but warm temperatures will be trapped below this region at 850 and 925 mb. While this creates a layer of instability in southeastern Ohio, the prominent dry air mass aloft and at the mid-levels will be a large inhibitor of substantial convective initiation. The introduction of the cold front at the surface could be a much-welcomed driver of cloud development ahead of it, possibly providing some relief from the intense sun.
Long-Term Forecast (Sunday 09/21/2025 through Wednesday 09/24/2025):
By Sunday, relative zonal flow will smooth out over the Midwest region. Much of the same conditions from the short-term will travel into Sunday and Monday. High-pressure with a warm front ahead of Ohio will keep the region stable and hot, however, by Tuesday, a cut-off low is expected to develop over the Dakotas and travel slightly southeastward. This development will put Athens upstream of an upper-level trough alongside a minor jet streak just west of Ohio. Though, this cut-off low will stall over Minnesota and Iowa for the remainder of Wednesday, allowing another minor jet streak to possibly move over the region. While this upper-level feature may not be particularly strong, a prominent surface low with an adjoining cold front will push through once again. This cold front may bring the chances for much-needed showers mid-next week, especially as 850-500 mb vertical velocities are generally supportive of convective motions. Abundant moisture is likely to be present between 700-500 mb with lesser values near the surface, so any cloud development has the potential to develop some precipitation for the southeastern Ohio region. Though, if any rain is seen Wednesday, it is unlikely to put a significant dent in the drought conditions we are currently experiencing.
