Issued: 8am on Thursday, September 25th 2025
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-Term Forecast (Thursday 09/25/2025 through Saturday 09/27/2025):
The last bits of an upper-level trough will push through Thursday, bringing the last bits of rain with it. A surface cold front with the chain of low-pressure systems will crawl over the state during the day Thursday, and behind it will be drier conditions once again. Friday into Saturday will build into a major, broad ridge aloft and high-pressure, amplifying this dry air mass. Minor instability will continue through the short-term, though with overall sinking air and dry air throughout all levels of the atmosphere, barely anything will be able to occur. Cloud cover will reduce significantly, though that is in-part due to the passing cold front and drying conditions as a result. The substantial lack of vertical motion from expected stable conditions is also supported by a significant lack of strong vertical velocity values and with some values becoming positive in certain areas. Slow, calm conditions are expected to begin by Friday as we return to a similar dry pattern once more.
Long-Term Forecast (Sunday 09/28/2025 through Wednesday 10/01/2025):
A cut-off low will slowly form and define itself into the early long-term forecast, but this is unlikely to produce any substantial unsettled weather for the region. Temperatures are expected to remain fairly consistent in the upper-70s to lower-80s with comfortable overnight lows in the mid-to-upper 50s. A similar pattern of calm weather will also define the long-term as high-pressure continues to blanket the region. Despite this upper-level cut-off low, the broad ridging seen in the short-term will follow and dominate as the low dissipates Tuesday and Wednesday. As also seen in the short-term, dry air will be a persistent feature throughout the atmosphere and is expected to persist through the remainder of this forecast, possibly beyond. These dry conditions, yet again, do not bode well for not just the state of Ohio, but much of the Midwest and New England areas. Furthering dry spells will only worsen our current drought in the state, and without multiple days with substantial rainfall, drought conditions are not expected to let up and subside for the foreseeable future.
