Issued: 8am on Thursday, September 4th 2025
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-Term Forecast (Thursday 09/04/2025 through Saturday 09/06/2025):
Throughout much of the day Thursday, most of the state will sit just upstream of an upper-level trough as a surface cold front follows behind it. Associated with this trough is an upper-level low that has been sitting over the region this week. For most of the short-term, this upper-level low will remain just north of Michigan, and with a surface mid-latitude cyclone, likely will bring the region showers and maybe even a thunderstorm Thursday. Some instability will be present with relatively warm temperatures near the surface at 850 and 925 mb while colder temperatures layer above at 700 and 500 mb. While not a strong gradient, considerable lift will likely be present on Thursday with plenty of moisture near the surface and mid-levels. This abundant moisture will allow convection to utilize surface heating, producing a considerable amount of vertical lift throughout the early morning and afternoon. Relative vorticity will generally remain positive for most of the day Thursday, though it’s unlikely to be particularly strong. This vorticity won’t stick around the region for too long with a weakening atmosphere behind it. By Thursday evening into Friday, the cold front will have moved over Ohio, bringing much drier, chillier air overnight. The atmosphere will stabilize slightly on Friday as clouds decrease throughout the day, but by Friday evening and early Saturday morning unsettled weather could return. A deeper trough will form early Saturday, putting southern Ohio, yet again, upstream of this upper-level feature. During this time, another cold front will pass through with some weak instability behind it. This disturbance is likely to primarily produce rain during the early hours, especially as any vertical motions present have plenty of moisture throughout the atmosphere to convect into rain-bearing clouds. However, as quickly as these clouds are to develop Friday into Saturday, they will just as quickly to dissipate before sunrise Saturday. Though, some showers could pop-up later during the daytime hours on Saturday with diminished thunderstorm expectancy.
Long-Term Forecast (Sunday 09/07/2025 through Wednesday 09/10/2025):
The long-term forecast isn’t expected to have the kind of activity as we’ll see in the short-term. Sunday through Wednesday will see the same patterns we’ve become accustomed to for the past couple of months. An upper-level ridge will begin to slowly form behind the deep trough that has been over Ohio for the past week while high-pressure fills in behind the cold front. Extremely dry air will immediately follow behind this front as well, evaporating any lingering clouds and discouraging the development of future clouds. The high-pressure at the surface will permeate over the eastern Midwest and most if not the entire East Coast. With the combination of cooler, dry air with atmospheric conditions inhibiting strong vertical motions, sunny, stable conditions will return by Sunday into the middle of next week.
